Earlier this week after returning from a trip to Russia, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson announced that the White House has opened up a full investigation into the Iranian nuclear deal. According to Tillerson’s breif statements on the matter, this will be done to review whether or not Iran has been living up to its end of the agreement and what wiggle room, if any, the United States has to start placing sanctions back upon the country.
It is no secret by now that Donald Trump has been very outspoken in his condemnation of the Iranian deal. Last year while on the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised to put an end to the agreement if/when he took office on more than on occasion, calling it “disastrous,” while adding that the Iranian Nuclear Deal was “one of the worst deals” the US has ever made or that he had ever seen.
However, upon taking the White House, Trump soon came to realize that the whole affair was much more complicated than he ever realized and like the Affordable Care Act, repealing it would be much more difficult than he first thought. This is ultimately why Donald Trump has gone back on his word and continues to enforce the deal to this day.
As for why it is so complicated, it is because placing sanctions on Iran in 2017 would ipso facto place sanctions on several different countries around the world at the same time. This is because ever since the Iran nuclear deal went into effect and economic sanctions were first lifted, Iran has gone to quick work signing trade deals and forging new business partnerships with countries/corporations all over the world. Preventing Iran from doing business with these partners in 2017 would therefore effect/harm all of Iran’s business partners equally.
For example, in the fall of 2016, Iran signed multi-billion dollar natural gas contracts with France and China. Iran then signed a 10 billion dollar deal to supply Russia with oil over the course of the next several years. Not only did Turkey agreed to build 4.2 billion dollars worth of factories for Iran in the summer of 2016, but Turkeyalso agreed to increase oil/gas imports from Iran at the same time. Even into 2017, Iran continues to sign multi-billion dollar deals with companies such as Boeing in the United States and Hyundia in South Korea.
The list really could go on like that for a while, but I think you have received my point on the matter. Every single one of the contracts listed above was signed over the course of the last year and would not have been possible if sanctions against Iran had not been lifted by the nuclear deal in 2016. This is also why Donald Trump has chosen to honor the nuclear deal since taking office, because ending it would end up costing several US allies billions of dollars worth of business.
— The Webtiⓥist (@thewebtivist) December 5, 2016
It remains to be seen what Donald Trump and the White House do in the future, but they are being pressured by top political allies such as Israel to “repeal and replace” the Iranian Nuclear Deal. I certainly think this is what Donald Trump would like to do if the decision was left to himself, but it could be a disastrous if he ever did.
I say this because if the US pulls out of their end of the agreement, it would not have stopped Iran from making hundreds of billions of dollars over the course of the last year and would not entirely stop the country from doing business with others in the future, particularly Russia, China and Turkey. However, if the US does back out of their end of the deal, it would theoretically free up Iran to once again start pursuing the development of nuclear weapons.
Remember, Iran agreed to give up the pursuit of a nuclear weapon in exchange for the freedom to grow their economy and develop economic/business partnerships around the world. If the US takes away Iran’s business opportunities and place sanctions back on the country, it would reset everything back to square one and Iran would indubitably go right back to enriching uranium. The only difference this time would be that Iran now has hundreds of billions of dollar more in resources to develop these weapons today than they had just two years ago.
You might also remember that, in accordance with the nuclear deal, Iran agreed to get rid of their entire stockpile of enriched uranium. However, +90% of which was shipped to Russia – not US allies.
Iran ships uranium to Russia, fulfilling a key provision of nuclear deal – Washington Post https://t.co/1IYZsy29MP
— L'arcade Buffet 38 (@BuffetLarcade) May 27, 2016
Considering that Iran and Russia have a strong working relationship and mutual defense pacts with one another, given all of the recent tensions/animosity between Russia and the US, do you really think that Russia wouldn’t be willing to ship this uranium right back to Iran if the US violates their end of an internationally negotiated peace treaty?
This is why I maintain that backing out of the Iranian Nuclear Deal would be one of the worst foreign policy decisions that the United States could make at this point in time, no matter how popular it would be with the “Zionist” community. To be fair though, Donald Trump is right to a degree. No country has benefited more from the nuclear deal than Iran has, but despite how poor of a decision it may or may not have been sign it in the first place, there is really no taking it back at this point.
Not only would pulling out of this agreement now hurt several US allies in the process, but it would also put Iran closer to obtaining and developing an actual nuclear weapon than they have ever been before. Moreover, considering it would have been the US who violated the agreement and not Iran, it would also give Iran the legal grounds to go ahead and start developing these weapons once again.